BOSTON, April 17, 2025 -- The outlook for upper-income American consumers' future spending has plunged in the face of the recent tariff-induced turmoil in equity markets threatening to trigger significant contractionary pressures in the US economy, the latest results of the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes show today.
The Consumer Health Indexes' outlook score for upper-income Americans plummeted in April by 11.8 points to 88.6, succumbing to its sharpest ever drop except for that seen at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and slumping to the lowest level seen since that time. The fall in the outlook score for better-off US consumers contributed to a 5.3-point fall in the CHI's overall outlook reading for all US consumers, which dropped to 94.6 this month.
The abrupt drop in the CHI's consumer outlook gauge for upper-income Americans reflects the impact of this month's stock market upheavals on this group's investment portfolios, which make up a large portion of the group's overall wealth, the Bain/Dynata analysis finds.
With upper-income US consumers representing more than half of discretionary consumer spending, the CHI report warns that if the equity market disruptions and the negative outlook for well-off Americans persist, their spending intentions would very likely be hit, dealing a significant blow to growth prospects for the US economy.
Counterintuitively, the April CHI data also shows upper-income consumers' spending intentions rose significantly, by 2.1 points. But while this would normally be viewed as a sign of consumer strength, the Bain/Dynata analysis concludes that, with the upper-income group's spending intentions having jumped just as tariff moves were announced, the rise points to better-off Americans pulling forward spending to 'front-run' potential tariff impacts by making intended purchases early. The report finds this pattern means effects on consumer spending from a worsening outlook for upper-income consumers may not appear immediately.
"Our outlook index is in historic decline, led by upper-income earners. Not surprisingly, upper-income consumers are extremely concerned about their investment portfolios. Since the performance of these assets forms the basis of perceived financial health for this group, we would expect spending to decline if this outlook level persists," Brian Stobie, senior director in Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group said.
April's CHI report also finds that US middle-income consumers are adopting a defensive posture. The CHI outlook gauge of the middle-income group fell marginally by 0.2 points, to a long-term neutral level, in part reflecting that perceptions of financial health for the group are much more geared to the housing market and the price of houses which typically form their main assets, rather than by equity markets. At the same time, the Bain/Dynata report notes that saving intentions for middle-income Americans jumped by 2.4 points this month while the CHI reading for their intent to use debt fell 2.5 points. "Middle-income earners are clearly adopting a defensive crouch. They are increasing saving and scaling back intentions to use debt to levels below the long-term norms," Stobie said.
Lower-income consumers showed the fewest signs of concern, the Bain/Dynata analysis finds, noting that the April outlook readings for the group continued a six-month uptrend, reflecting continued relative strength in the jobs market. But the report cautioned that the more positive results for lower-income Americans could change if current economic volatility leads to a deterioration in the jobs market.
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