NEW YORK, Dec. 19, 2024 -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in November 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October. Over the six-month period between May and November 2024, the LEI declined by 1.6%, slightly less than its 1.9% decline over the previous six months (November 2023 to May 2024).
"The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It's worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings. Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US improved by 0.1% in November 2024 to 113.0 (2016=100)—the same rate of growth as each month between July and October. As a result, the CEI increased by 0.6% in the six-month period ending November 2024, slightly higher than its 0.5% growth over the previous six-month period. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Personal income less transfer payments was the highest positive contributor to CEI, based on estimates for November, followed by payroll employment, and manufacturing and trade sales, all of which offset the third consecutive decline in industrial production.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.3% to 118.8 (2016=100) in November 2024, after a decline of 0.1% in October. However, the LAG's six-month growth rate was negative at 0.4% between May and November 2024, a partial reversal from its 0.6% increase over the previous six months.
The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, January 22, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes |
2024 | 6-Month | |||||||
September | October | November | May to Nov | |||||
Leading Index | 99.8 | r | 99.4 | r | 99.7 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.4 | r | -0.4 | 0.3 | -1.6 | |||
Diffusion | 55.0 | 20.0 | 70.0 | 50.0 | ||||
Coincident Index | 112.8 | 112.9 | r | 113.0 | p | |||
Percent Change | 0.1 | r | 0.1 | r | 0.1 | 0.6 | ||
Diffusion | 62.5 | 62.5 | 75.0 | 75.0 | ||||
Lagging Index | 118.6 | r | 118.5 | r | 118.8 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.4 | r | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | |||
Diffusion | 0.0 | 42.9 | 71.4 | 0.0 | ||||
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected | Source: The Conference Board | |||||||
Indexes equal 100 in 2016 | ||||||||
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:
- Payroll employment
- Personal income less transfer payments
- Manufacturing and trade sales
- Industrial production
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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