NEW YORK, July 18, 2024 -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of last year.
"The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI's long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June's data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.3 percent in June 2024 to 112.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in May. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the first half of 2024, about half its growth rate of 1.3 percent over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved in June, with industrial production making the largest positive contribution to the CEI for the second consecutive month.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. inched up by 0.1 percent in June 2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), partially reversing a decline of 0.2 percent in May. The LAG's six-month growth rate rebounded to 1.2 percent over the first half of this year, substantially higher than its 0.3 percent increase over the second half of 2023.
The next release is scheduled for Monday, August 19, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes | ||||||||
2024 | 6-Month | |||||||
April | May | June | Dec to Jun | |||||
Leading Index | 101.7 | 101.3 | r | 101.1 | p | |||
Percent Change | -0.6 | -0.4 | r | -0.2 | -1.9 | |||
Diffusion | 30.0 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 40.0 | ||||
Coincident Index | 111.8 | r | 112.3 | r | 112.6 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.1 | r | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |||
Diffusion | 50.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | ||||
Lagging Index | 119.6 | r | 119.4 | 119.5 | p | |||
Percent Change | 0.4 | r | -0.2 | r | 0.1 | 1.2 | ||
Diffusion | 57.1 | 28.6 | 57.1 | 64.3 | ||||
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected | Source: The Conference Board | |||||||
Indexes equal 100 in 2016 | ||||||||
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the U.S. are:
- Payroll employment
- Personal income less transfer payments
- Manufacturing and trade sales
- Industrial production
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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