IRVINE, Calif., March 11, 2025 -- LightBox, a leading provider of commercial real estate (CRE) data and technology, reported a sharp rise in its February 2025 LightBox CRE Activity Index, which climbed to 96.1, up from 80.7 in January and 75.8 a year ago. This 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year increase signals a continued rebound in CRE activity, even as the market navigates shifting federal policies and economic uncertainty.
"February's sharp rise underscores the resilience of CRE deal-making, despite an evolving policy landscape and broader economic uncertainty," said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. "Investors and lenders are navigating selective opportunities as they weigh the impact of interest rate policy, government budget changes, and tariff shifts."
The LightBox CRE Activity Index tracks commercial property listings, environmental due diligence (Phase I ESA volume), and valuation activity—key functions that support CRE transactions and collectively serve as a leading indicator of deal activity. The Index is normalized to account for variations in the number of business days per month, providing a consistent measure of market trends.
According to the report commentary, the 20-point year-over-year gain suggests a more active lending and investment environment, approaching the September 2024 high of 98.2—back then a surge fueled by the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point rate cut. February's increase was reflective of a:
- 20% rise in environmental due diligence activity
- 17% uptick in commercial property appraisal demand
- 19% increase in properties listed on the LightBox platform
This growth reflects a strengthening market following the late-2024 slowdown, attributable to post-election volatility and seasonal trends.
The report highlights some of the trends that account for the increase. Recent deals highlighted in the report show that capital is still flowing to well-located assets, including high-quality offices, data centers, shopping centers, and multifamily investments in growth markets. The U.S. office sector is stabilizing, with sales up 20% in early 2025. Leasing growth has neared 30% in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago, with even stronger gains in Dallas, Seattle, and Atlanta. Return-to-office mandates, led by firms like JPMorgan Chase, are fueling demand as occupiers gain confidence in long-term commitments. Meanwhile, apartment transactions remained strong in February, with capital targeting markets poised for rent growth potential.
The report commentary notes that while February's CRE Activity Index signaled strong momentum in lending and investment activity, market sentiment is turning more cautious as concerns over government job cuts and shifting tariff policies take hold.
"Rising economic and political uncertainty is creating headwinds for the market," said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. "The next few months will be critical—if economic barometers on inflation or the labor market raise recessionary fears, we could see a decline in market confidence that could, in turn, dampen the strong leasing and investment activity that we've seen so far this year."
The authors of the LightBox report state that the Federal Reserve's next moves will also be key. If labor market weakness becomes a priority, rate cuts could accelerate, providing relief to CRE. However, if inflation remains persistent, higher rates may linger, prolonging financing challenges.
"The March Index could reflect a growing sense of caution," Clancy noted, "as uncertainty forces investors and lenders to take a more measured approach to strategic commitments."
Dive into the latest data from the February CRE Activity Index
About LightBox
At LightBox, we are at the forefront of delivering advanced and precise solutions for commercial real estate intelligence. Our dedication to innovation propels real estate professionals forward by providing them with the essential tools required to navigate complex decisions, minimize risk, and boost productivity across the spectrum of real estate operations. LightBox is renowned for its commitment to promoting excellence and fostering connections in the industry, serving an extensive clientele of over 30,000 customers. Our diverse client base spans commercial and government sectors, including but not limited to brokers, developers, investors, lenders, insurers, technologists, environmental advisors, appraisers, and other businesses that depend on geospatial information. To discover more about how LightBox can illuminate the path to informed real estate solutions, visit us at: www.LightBoxRE.com
Media inquiries: media@lightboxRE.com
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